Fuzzy Math


This may be getting nitpicky, but something seems wrong with this CNN report about the Predator drone:

Predators are not fast, cruising about 80 miles an hour. The rear-mounted propeller seems small for the size of the craft -- what amounts to little more than a snowmobile engine strapped to a glider. It can fly for 20 hours at a time with a range of 450 miles on 100 gallons of fuel.


Category:  Blaming the Media
Comments (9)      top   link me

Comments

Maybe the range is limited by radio control signal strength, not fuel capacity. Otherwise the math is way off.

Posted by: Phelps at June 10, 2006 12:05 PM

Phelps,

Could be. But they also say that the drones are controlled by pilots 8000 miles away at Nellis Air Force Base in Las Vegas. My guess is that they're encrypted satellite transmissions, not local RF.

Posted by: Ravenwood at June 10, 2006 1:42 PM

besides being remotely piloted, I know the drones can be refueled from the air.

80 miles an hour times 20 hours equals a 1600 mile range, so yea somethings off.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Predator_drone

Posted by: Standard Mischief at June 10, 2006 8:01 PM

Apparently the "reporter" doesn't do math.

Posted by: Kevin Baker at June 11, 2006 1:40 AM

If the reporter could do math, he/she would be able to get jobs that most people think are much, much better.

Posted by: markm at June 12, 2006 4:56 PM

Most likely, the reporter parroted specs without understanding them. (You've got to do math to understand them.)

1) Does "range" mean total miles flown, range to target with enough fuel to get back (=1/2 the total miles), or range to target area with X gallons of fuel for operations over the target area (even less)? The third definition is the most useful one for fighter planes, although I think the Air Force generally calls it "combat radius". The first one is how you define the range of a missile, but IIRC the Predator supposed to deliver it's very expensive self home, so range of 450 should imply it can fly at least 900 miles.

2) There's a tradeoff between speed and range. I suspect the Predator only gets a few hours at 80 mph, and wouldn't make 900 miles or even 450. Throttled back for maximum endurance, it apparently burns 5 gallons per hour to barely stay in the air, but it is going very slow. Say, under 45 mph, and also won't make 900 miles. Somewhere in between is an optimum cruising speed that gets the maximum distance possible.

Finally, I see a problem here. The Predator is flying low and slow enough that every infantryman can see it, and a properly trained machinegunner could knock it out ot the sky. (I'm assuming a belt-fed gun with 7.62x51, 30-06 or any other full power cartridges, and with tracers.) A guy with a rifle might bring it down if he leads it far enough and has a lot of luck, but this is one place where you should have tracers so you can see where the bullets are going, and a belt-feed so you can keep pumping out bursts and making corrections until you hit it. And then you want to hit it many times.

Posted by: markm at June 12, 2006 5:27 PM

Anybody that says 80 miles an hour is slow has never dangled from an aircraft actually going that fast and looked down.

Posted by: Justin Buist at June 15, 2006 9:59 PM

Let's do some REPORTING. From the website of General Atomics, the manufacturer of the Predator drone: Capabilities of Predator:
Expanded EO/IR payload
SAR all-weather capability
Satellite control
GPS and INS
Over 24 hr on-station at 400 nmi
Deployed with the U.S. and Italian Air Force
Operations to 25,000 ft (7620m)
450 lb (204 kg) payload
Wingspan 48.7 ft (14.84m), length 27 ft (8.23m)

so it looks like the reporter confused the payload (450 lb) with a distance capability. At a distance of 400nmi, the Predator can stay "on station" over 24h, with a total flight time of 30h, for 6h to cover 800nmi there&back, or speed of ~133nm/h

For the PREDATOR B(which is way neater):
Multi-Mission ISR


High-Altitude
Scientific Research

Long-Endurance
Navy and Homeland Security Applications

Span 66 ft (20m)
Length 36 ft (11m)
Max GTOW: 10,500 lb (4763 kg)
Max Altitude: 50,000 ft
Max Endurance:
30+ hr
Max Payload Capacity:
Internal - 800 lb (363 kg)
External - 3,000 lb (1361 kg)
Powerplant: Honeywell TPE 331-10T
Max Air Speed: 220+ KTAS
Customer: U.S. Air Force, DHS/CBP
Span: 86 ft (26m)
Length: 36 ft (11m)
Max GTOW: 8,000 lb (3629 kg)
Max Altitude: 52,000 ft
Max Endurance:
30+ hr
Max Payload
Capacity :

Internal - 800 lb (363 kg)
External - 1,200 lb (544 kg)

Powerplant: Honeywell TPE 331-10T
Max Air Speed: 220+ KTAS
Customer: NASA
Span 86 ft (26m)
Length 36 ft (11m)
Max GTOW 11,000 lb (4990 kg)
Max Altitude: 52,000 ft
Max Endurance:
49+ hr
Max Payload Capacity:
Internal - 1,150 lb (522 kg)
External - 2,000 lb (907 kg)

Powerplant: Honeywell TPE 331-10T
Max Air Speed: 240+ KTAS

Jeez, that took 3 minutes and alomst a dozen mouse clicks. This reporting stuff is difficult.


Posted by: Austin Mike at June 16, 2006 5:52 PM

OK, like any good reporter I've now gone back and read more of the GA website for the Predator. And darn if they don't have even more cool info there. Such as the all weather FTIR and other optics that allow flight way, way up in the sky, like about 50,000 feet. Visual aiming is difficult at anything that high, let alone that flies in the dark, above clouds, and still sees YOU well enough to pop a Hellfire on yo sorry ass.

Joystick users of the teenage population: start your engines! The military will need you, and soon!

Posted by: Austin Mike at June 16, 2006 5:57 PM
Post a comment









Remember personal info?


- SPAM safe, Email address is NEVER displayed to the public
- all your comments are belong to us.  
- <b>, <i>, <a href> are okay.
- Comments may be closed on posts older than 30 days.






(c) Ravenwood and Associates, 1990 - 2014

About Ravenwood
Libertarianism
Libertarian Quiz
Secrets o' the Universe
Email Ravenwood

reading
<Blogroll Me>
/images/buttons/ru-button-r.gif

Bitch Girls
Bogie Blog
Countertop Chronicles
DC Thornton
Dean's World
Dumb Criminals
Dustbury
Gallery Clastic
Geek with a .45
Gut Rumbles
Hokie Pundit
Joanie
Lone Star Times
Other Side of Kim
Right Wing News
Say Uncle
Scrappleface
Silflay Hraka
Smallest Minority
The Command Post
Venomous Kate
VRWC


FemmeBloggers


archives

search the universe



rings etc

Gun Blogs


rss feeds
[All Versions]
[PDA Version]
[Non-CSS Version]
XML 0.91
RSS 1.0 (blurb)
RSS 2.0 (full feed)
 

credits
Design by:

Powered by: Movable Type 3.34
Encryption by: Deltus
Hosted by: Bluehost

Ravenwood's Universe:
Established 1990

Odometer

OdometerOdometerOdometerOdometerOdometer